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La Liga · Matchday 9Saturday 17 October · 13:00 · RCDE Stadium
Espanyol14th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Exact score
Atlético Madrid2nd place
ESP 23%X 26%ATM 51%

What does the market say?

EspanyolDrawAtlético MadridRinvalo23%26%51%
Market20%25%55%

✓ Agree · both back Atlético Madrid

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 164 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 2.4 points per game, Espanyol 0.8.
  • If Espanyol score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Atlético Madrid win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.31X26%3.84251%1.97
Double chance
1X49%2.03X277%1.301274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Espanyol · Columns: Atlético Madrid0-1 probability 10.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Espanyol – Atlético Madrid17 October 20260-1
Atlético Madrid – Espanyol21 February 20264-2
Espanyol – Atlético Madrid17 August 20252-1
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Atlético Madrid – Espanyol28 August 20240-0
Espanyol – Atlético Madrid24 May 20233-3