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La Liga · Matchday 9Sunday 18 October · 20:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Full time4-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Sevilla6th place
RMA 75%X 17%SEV 8%

What does the market say?

Real MadridDrawSevillaRinvalo75%17%8%
Market76%15%9%

✓ Agree · both back Real Madrid

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 193 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.3, Sevilla -0.1.
  • Real Madrid take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Sevilla score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.8
Over 2.564%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
175%1.34X17%5.9828%11.85
Double chance
1X92%1.09X225%3.971283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.75BTTS yes50%2.02BTTS no50%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Sevilla4-1 probability 4.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Sevilla18 October 20264-1
Sevilla – Real Madrid17 May 20260-1
Real Madrid – Sevilla20 December 20252-0
Sevilla – Real Madrid18 May 20250-2
Real Madrid – Sevilla22 December 20244-2
Real Madrid – Sevilla25 February 20241-0