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La Liga · Matchday 9Saturday 17 October · 15:15 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal8th place
Full time0-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Elche17th place
VIL 67%X 20%ELC 13%

What does the market say?

VillarrealDrawElcheRinvalo67%20%13%
Market65%19%15%

✓ Agree · both back Villarreal

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Villarreal lead by 123 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 0.7, Elche -0.8.
  • Villarreal take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Elche score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.1
Over 2.570%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.49X20%4.98213%7.78
Double chance
1X87%1.15X233%3.041280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.570%1.43Under 2.530%3.31BTTS yes62%1.63BTTS no38%2.60

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Elche0-0 probability 3.2% · final score

Form

Compare →
ElcheWDDWL

Head to head

Villarreal – Elche17 October 20260-0
Villarreal – Elche8 March 20262-1
Elche – Villarreal3 January 20261-3
Elche – Villarreal4 February 20233-1
Villarreal – Elche4 September 20224-0
Elche – Villarreal16 January 20221-0