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La Liga · Matchday 9Sunday 18 October · 17:30 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Full time2-5Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Result correct
Real Sociedad5th place
MAL 29%X 28%RSO 43%

What does the market say?

MálagaDrawReal SociedadRinvalo29%28%43%
Market30%27%43%

✓ Agree · both back Real Sociedad

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Real Sociedad 2.0 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • Real Sociedad lead by 85 rating points.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Real Sociedad win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.50X28%3.54243%2.31
Double chance
1X57%1.76X271%1.401272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.543%2.30Under 2.557%1.77BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Real Sociedad2-5 probability 0.2% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Málaga – Real Sociedad18 October 20262-5