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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
La Liga · Matchday 9Saturday 17 October · 20:00 · Estadio de Mestalla
Valencia19th place
Full time0-0Prediction wrong
Athletic Bilbao7th place
VAL 32%X 30%ATH 38%

What does the market say?

ValenciaDrawAthletic BilbaoRinvalo32%30%38%
Market29%28%43%

✓ Agree · both back Athletic Bilbao

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Athletic Bilbao 1.6 points per game, Valencia 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Athletic Bilbao 0.3, Valencia -0.4.
  • If Valencia score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Athletic Bilbao score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.2
Over 2.541%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Athletic Bilbao win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.09X30%3.37238%2.64
Double chance
1X62%1.61X268%1.481270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.541%2.43Under 2.559%1.70BTTS yes48%2.08BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Valencia · Columns: Athletic Bilbao0-0 probability 10.6% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Valencia – Athletic Bilbao17 October 20260-0
Athletic Bilbao – Valencia10 May 20260-1
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao20 September 20252-0
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao18 May 20250-1
Athletic Bilbao – Valencia28 August 20241-0
Valencia – Athletic Bilbao20 January 20241-0