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Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Estoril18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Gil Vicente9th place
EST 27%X 28%GIL 45%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Gil Vicente lead by 118 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Gil Vicente 1.6 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Gil Vicente 0.2, Estoril -0.6.
  • If Estoril score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.72X28%3.53245%2.23
Double chance
1X55%1.81X273%1.371272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.25Under 2.556%1.80BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estoril · Columns: Gil Vicente1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estoril – Gil Vicente22 February 20263-1
Gil Vicente – Estoril21 September 20252-0
Gil Vicente – Estoril1 February 20251-2
Estoril – Gil Vicente25 August 20240-0
Estoril – Gil Vicente18 February 20241-3
Gil Vicente – Estoril17 September 20235-3