TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Marítimo14th place
NAC 49%X 27%MAR 23%

Prediction

  • If Nacional score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nacional win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.02X27%3.67223%4.28
Double chance
1X77%1.31X251%1.981273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Marítimo1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →