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Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Moreirense8th place
SCL 51%X 28%MOR 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Moreirense -0.9.
  • Santa Clara lead by 69 rating points.
  • Santa Clara take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.8
Over 2.539%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X28%3.54221%4.80
Double chance
1X79%1.26X249%2.041272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.539%2.55Under 2.561%1.64BTTS yes43%2.30BTTS no57%1.77

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Moreirense1-0 probability 14.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Santa Clara24 January 20261-0
Santa Clara – Moreirense17 August 20250-1
Santa Clara – Moreirense9 March 20251-1
Moreirense – Santa Clara5 October 20241-0
Moreirense – Santa Clara22 January 20220-2
Santa Clara – Moreirense15 August 20212-2