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Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio do Rio Ave FC
Rio Ave16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arouca5th place
RAV 25%X 27%ARO 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 151 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.99X27%3.73248%2.08
Double chance
1X52%1.93X275%1.331273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rio Ave · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
Rio AveDLWLL
AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Rio Ave – Arouca31 January 20260-3
Arouca – Rio Ave23 August 20253-3
Arouca – Rio Ave10 February 20251-1
Rio Ave – Arouca1 September 20241-0
Rio Ave – Arouca19 April 20241-1
Arouca – Rio Ave10 December 20232-2