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Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Benfica2nd place
FAM 17%X 22%BEN 61%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 208 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Famalicão -0.4.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Famalicão 1.4.
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 44% of the time
  • If Benfica score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.554%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.95X22%4.45261%1.65
Double chance
1X39%2.55X283%1.201278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Benfica1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Famalicão – Benfica2 May 20262-2
Benfica – Famalicão22 December 20251-0
Benfica – Famalicão17 January 20254-0
Famalicão – Benfica11 August 20242-0
Famalicão – Benfica5 May 20242-0
Benfica – Famalicão29 December 20233-0