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Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
EAM 32%X 28%VSC 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 62 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Vitória de Guimarães 1.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.4
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
132%3.13X28%3.53240%2.52
Double chance
1X60%1.66X268%1.471272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Estrela Amadora14 February 20262-1
Estrela Amadora – Vitória de Guimarães14 September 20250-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Estrela Amadora16 March 20252-0
Estrela Amadora – Vitória de Guimarães27 October 20242-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Estrela Amadora21 January 20243-0
Estrela Amadora – Vitória de Guimarães13 August 20230-1