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Primeira Liga · Matchday 29Sunday 11 April · 16:00 · Estádio José Alvalade
Sporting CP3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Porto1st place
SCP 41%X 28%POR 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.549%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Sporting CP win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.46X28%3.56231%3.19
Double chance
1X69%1.46X259%1.681272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.02Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sporting CP · Columns: Porto1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Porto – Sporting CP9 February 20261-1
Sporting CP – Porto30 August 20251-2
Porto – Sporting CP7 February 20251-1
Sporting CP – Porto31 August 20242-0
Porto – Sporting CP28 April 20242-2
Sporting CP – Porto18 December 20232-0