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Eredivisie · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Van Donge and De Roo Stadion
Excelsior15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Ajax2nd place
EXC 16%X 20%AJA 64%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 234 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Ajax 0.9, Excelsior -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 40% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 83% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.3
Over 2.565%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.31X20%4.88264%1.57
Double chance
1X36%2.75X284%1.191280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.89BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Excelsior · Columns: Ajax1-2 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Ajax – Excelsior19 September 20262-2
Excelsior – Ajax1 February 20262-2
Ajax – Excelsior22 November 20251-2
Ajax – Excelsior24 April 20242-2
Excelsior – Ajax19 August 20232-2
Excelsior – Ajax29 January 20231-4