TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Eredivisie · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Koning Willem II Stadion
Willem II18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
WIL 21%X 22%SPA 57%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sparta Rotterdam lead by 169 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, Willem II -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Sparta Rotterdam 1.4 points per game, Willem II 0.0.
  • If Willem II score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.1
Over 2.565%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.87X22%4.47257%1.75
Double chance
1X43%2.33X279%1.261278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.565%1.54Under 2.535%2.84BTTS yes63%1.60BTTS no37%2.67

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Willem II · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam1-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II17 October 20263-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II2 March 20254-0
Willem II – Sparta Rotterdam31 August 20241-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Willem II13 February 20221-0
Willem II – Sparta Rotterdam6 November 20210-3