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Eredivisie · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Euroborg
Groningen8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
GRO 31%X 26%AZ 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Groningen -0.2.
  • If Groningen score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.21X26%3.79242%2.35
Double chance
1X58%1.74X269%1.451274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Groningen · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Groningen – AZ Alkmaar22 March 20263-0
AZ Alkmaar – Groningen10 August 20254-1
AZ Alkmaar – Groningen11 May 20253-0
Groningen – AZ Alkmaar25 August 20240-0
AZ Alkmaar – Groningen11 March 20231-0
Groningen – AZ Alkmaar1 October 20221-4