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Eredivisie · Matchday 17Saturday 19 December · 15:30 · Van Donge and De Roo Stadion
Excelsior15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
EXC 19%X 23%AZ 59%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, Excelsior -1.1.
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.40X23%4.43259%1.70
Double chance
1X41%2.43X281%1.231277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.560%1.68Under 2.540%2.48BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Excelsior · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 10.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar14 February 20261-2
AZ Alkmaar – Excelsior21 January 20261-1
AZ Alkmaar – Excelsior10 March 20244-0
Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar4 November 20231-1
AZ Alkmaar – Excelsior10 February 20235-0
Excelsior – AZ Alkmaar23 October 20222-1