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Eredivisie · Matchday 17Saturday 19 December · 17:45 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Sparta Rotterdam11th place
FOR 36%X 27%SPA 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sparta Rotterdam 0.3, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Sparta Rotterdam score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.556%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Sparta Rotterdam win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.77X27%3.67237%2.73
Double chance
1X63%1.58X264%1.561273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fortuna Sittard · Columns: Sparta Rotterdam1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

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Head to head

Fortuna Sittard – Sparta Rotterdam7 February 20262-2
Sparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard22 November 20251-1
Fortuna Sittard – Sparta Rotterdam29 March 20250-3
Sparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard28 September 20241-1
Sparta Rotterdam – Fortuna Sittard30 March 20244-0
Fortuna Sittard – Sparta Rotterdam13 January 20240-2