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Eredivisie · Matchday 17Sunday 20 December · 15:45 · De Adelaarshorst
Go Ahead Eagles10th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Ajax2nd place
GAE 22%X 23%AJA 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Ajax lead by 205 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Ajax 2.2 points per game, Go Ahead Eagles 1.0.
  • Ajax take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Go Ahead Eagles score first, they win 47% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.3 – 2.1
Over 2.566%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.64X23%4.32255%1.81
Double chance
1X45%2.24X278%1.281277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.93BTTS yes64%1.56BTTS no36%2.79

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Go Ahead Eagles · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 9.8%

Form

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Head to head

Ajax – Go Ahead Eagles17 January 20262-2
Go Ahead Eagles – Ajax17 August 20252-2
Ajax – Go Ahead Eagles23 February 20252-0
Go Ahead Eagles – Ajax21 September 20241-1
Ajax – Go Ahead Eagles4 April 20241-1
Go Ahead Eagles – Ajax14 January 20242-3