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Eredivisie · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 13:30 · Stadion Feyenoord
Feyenoord1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Ajax2nd place
FEY 53%X 25%AJA 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Feyenoord 1.6, Ajax 0.9.
  • Derby match.
  • If Feyenoord score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.560%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Feyenoord win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.90X25%4.03223%4.44
Double chance
1X77%1.29X247%2.111275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no40%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Feyenoord · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →
AjaxDDWWW

Head to head

Feyenoord – Ajax22 March 20261-1
Ajax – Feyenoord14 December 20252-0
Ajax – Feyenoord2 February 20252-1
Feyenoord – Ajax30 October 20240-2
Feyenoord – Ajax7 April 20246-0
Ajax – Feyenoord27 September 20230-4