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Eredivisie · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 15:45 · MAC³PARK Stadion
PEC Zwolle14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
PEC 18%X 22%AZ 59%

Prediction

Key factors
  • AZ Alkmaar lead by 141 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: AZ Alkmaar 0.8, PEC Zwolle -0.7.
  • If PEC Zwolle score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.0
Over 2.557%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.55X22%4.45259%1.68
Double chance
1X41%2.47X282%1.221278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PEC Zwolle · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 10.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

PEC Zwolle – AZ Alkmaar17 January 20263-1
AZ Alkmaar – PEC Zwolle24 September 20252-2
AZ Alkmaar – PEC Zwolle9 February 20252-0
PEC Zwolle – AZ Alkmaar20 September 20241-2
AZ Alkmaar – PEC Zwolle20 January 20242-2
PEC Zwolle – AZ Alkmaar24 September 20230-3