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Eredivisie · Matchday 14Sunday 29 November · 13:30 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Heerenveen7th place
FOR 28%X 27%HEE 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Heerenveen 0.2, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • Heerenveen lead by 69 rating points.
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Heerenveen score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.6
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Heerenveen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.64X27%3.76246%2.18
Double chance
1X54%1.85X273%1.381273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fortuna Sittard · Columns: Heerenveen1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Heerenveen – Fortuna Sittard25 April 20262-1
Fortuna Sittard – Heerenveen8 November 20252-0
Heerenveen – Fortuna Sittard1 February 20252-2
Fortuna Sittard – Heerenveen2 November 20243-0
Fortuna Sittard – Heerenveen3 February 20243-3
Heerenveen – Fortuna Sittard25 November 20233-0