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Serie A · Matchday 19Sunday 10 January · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Lecce14th place
FIO 50%X 27%LEC 23%

Prediction

  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Fiorentina win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X27%3.65223%4.39
Double chance
1X77%1.30X250%1.991273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes49%2.05BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Lecce1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Fiorentina20 April 20261-1
Fiorentina – Lecce2 November 20250-1
Fiorentina – Lecce28 February 20251-0
Lecce – Fiorentina20 October 20240-6
Lecce – Fiorentina2 February 20243-2
Fiorentina – Lecce27 August 20232-2