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Serie A · Matchday 19Sunday 10 January · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Roma3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Milan5th place
ROM 52%X 26%MIL 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 81 rating points.
  • Roma take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Roma score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.552%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.93X26%3.86222%4.47
Double chance
1X78%1.29X248%2.071274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.19

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Roma · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Roma – Milan25 January 20261-1
Milan – Roma2 November 20251-0
Roma – Milan18 May 20253-1
Milan – Roma29 December 20241-1
Milan – Roma14 January 20243-1
Roma – Milan1 September 20231-2