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Serie A · Matchday 35Sunday 9 May · 17:30 · Stadio Artemio Franchi
Fiorentina17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Roma3rd place
FIO 19%X 23%ROM 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 245 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Roma 2.2 points per game, Fiorentina 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Fiorentina -0.1.
  • If Fiorentina score first, they win 46% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.27X23%4.33258%1.73
Double chance
1X42%2.38X281%1.231277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fiorentina · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Roma – Fiorentina24 August 20264-0
Roma – Fiorentina4 May 20264-0
Fiorentina – Roma5 October 20251-2
Roma – Fiorentina4 May 20251-0
Fiorentina – Roma27 October 20245-1
Fiorentina – Roma10 March 20242-2