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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 35Sunday 9 May · 17:30 · Stadio Ennio Tardini
Parma18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Milan5th place
PAR 19%X 25%MIL 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 210 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Parma -0.7.
  • If Parma score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.6
Over 2.545%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.26X25%4.01256%1.78
Double chance
1X44%2.28X281%1.231275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes46%2.16BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Parma · Columns: Milan0-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
ParmaWLLLD
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Parma22 February 20260-1
Parma – Milan8 November 20252-2
Milan – Parma26 January 20253-2
Parma – Milan24 August 20242-1