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Premier League · Matchday 10Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · Craven Cottage
Fulham15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Newcastle United12th place
FUL 44%X 28%NEW 29%

What's at stake

FulhamRelegation7%10%13%
Newcastle UnitedRelegation3%4%6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fulham 0.3, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • If Fulham score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Fulham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.30X28%3.61229%3.47
Double chance
1X71%1.40X256%1.771272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fulham · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Fulham – Newcastle United24 May 20262-0
Newcastle United – Fulham25 October 20252-1
Newcastle United – Fulham1 February 20251-2
Fulham – Newcastle United21 September 20243-1
Fulham – Newcastle United6 April 20240-1
Newcastle United – Fulham16 December 20233-0