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Premier League · Matchday 10Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Hull City10th place
ARS 76%X 17%HUL 7%

What's at stake

ArsenalTitle71%61%58%
Hull CityRelegation26%41%47%

What does the market say?

ArsenalDrawHull CityRinvalo76%17%7%
Market82%13%5%

✓ Agree · both back Arsenal

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 249 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Hull City 0.6.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (82%).
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Hull City score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.4
Over 2.546%
Both teams score32%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.32X17%5.8727%13.93
Double chance
1X93%1.08X224%4.131283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.546%2.18Market 64%Under 2.554%1.85Market 36%BTTS yes32%3.16Market 41%BTTS no68%1.46Market 59%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Hull City2-0 probability 17.4%

Form

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