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Premier League · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 14:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Chelsea4th place
SUN 30%X 27%CHE 43%

What's at stake

SunderlandRelegation37%45%52%
ChelseaTop 426%18%15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Chelsea lead by 116 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.33X27%3.67243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.75X270%1.431273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Chelsea24 May 20262-1
Chelsea – Sunderland25 October 20251-2