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Premier League · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 14:00 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Liverpool5th place
CRY 22%X 25%LIV 53%

What's at stake

Crystal PalaceRelegation41%52%56%
LiverpoolTop 451%38%36%

What does the market say?

Crystal PalaceDrawLiverpoolRinvalo22%25%53%
Market21%22%56%

✓ Agree · both back Liverpool

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 157 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • The market also backs the away side (56%).
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.8
Over 2.555%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.45X25%4.02253%1.90
Double chance
1X47%2.11X278%1.291275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Market 60%Under 2.545%2.22Market 40%BTTS yes56%1.78Market 58%BTTS no44%2.28Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Crystal Palace · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Liverpool – Crystal Palace25 April 20263-1
Crystal Palace – Liverpool27 September 20252-1
Liverpool – Crystal Palace25 May 20251-1
Crystal Palace – Liverpool5 October 20240-1
Liverpool – Crystal Palace14 April 20240-1
Crystal Palace – Liverpool9 December 20231-2