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Premier League · Matchday 10Saturday 7 November · 17:30 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Manchester City2nd place
NFO 23%X 25%MCI 52%

What's at stake

Nottingham ForestRelegation4%8%11%
Manchester CityTitle31%25%20%

What does the market say?

Nottingham ForestDrawManchester CityRinvalo23%25%52%
Market21%24%55%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 214 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 1.8 points per game, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • The market also backs the away side (55%).
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.552%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.40X25%3.95252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.08X277%1.291275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Market 59%Under 2.548%2.06Market 41%BTTS yes54%1.86Market 58%BTTS no46%2.16Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Nottingham Forest4 March 20262-2
Nottingham Forest – Manchester City27 December 20251-2
Nottingham Forest – Manchester City8 March 20251-0
Manchester City – Nottingham Forest4 December 20243-0
Nottingham Forest – Manchester City28 April 20240-2
Manchester City – Nottingham Forest23 September 20232-0