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Premier League · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 16:30 · Old Trafford
Manchester United17th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
MUN 48%X 26%AVL 26%

What's at stake

Aston VillaTop 48%6%4%

What does the market say?

Manchester UnitedDrawAston VillaRinvalo48%26%26%
Market42%26%32%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester United

Prediction

Key factors
  • The market also backs the home side (42%).
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.09X26%3.83226%3.83
Double chance
1X74%1.35X252%1.911274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Market 59%Under 2.545%2.23Market 41%BTTS yes58%1.73Market 63%BTTS no42%2.37Market 38%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Aston Villa15 March 20263-1
Aston Villa – Manchester United21 December 20252-1
Manchester United – Aston Villa25 May 20252-0
Aston Villa – Manchester United6 October 20240-0
Aston Villa – Manchester United11 February 20241-2
Manchester United – Aston Villa26 December 20233-2