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Premier League · Matchday 10Sunday 8 November · 14:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Brentford6th place
BHA 54%X 25%BRE 21%

What's at stake

BrightonTop 487%81%78%
BrentfordTop 413%9%6%

What does the market say?

BrightonDrawBrentfordRinvalo54%25%21%
Market50%25%25%

✓ Agree · both back Brighton

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 61 rating points.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • The market also backs the home side (50%).
  • If Brighton score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Brentford score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X25%4.00221%4.86
Double chance
1X79%1.26X246%2.191275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Market 59%Under 2.544%2.26Market 41%BTTS yes56%1.78Market 61%BTTS no44%2.28Market 39%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Brentford1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brentford – Brighton21 February 20260-2
Brighton – Brentford22 November 20252-1
Brentford – Brighton19 April 20254-2
Brighton – Brentford27 December 20240-0
Brentford – Brighton3 April 20240-0
Brighton – Brentford6 December 20232-1