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Eredivisie · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · De Adelaarshorst
Go Ahead Eagles10th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Excelsior15th place
GAE 53%X 25%EXC 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Go Ahead Eagles 0.0, Excelsior -1.1.
  • Last 5 games: Go Ahead Eagles 1.0 points per game, Excelsior 0.2.
  • If Go Ahead Eagles score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Excelsior score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Over 2.566%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Go Ahead Eagles win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.90X25%4.03223%4.42
Double chance
1X77%1.29X247%2.111275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.95BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Go Ahead Eagles · Columns: Excelsior1-1 probability 9.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Excelsior – Go Ahead Eagles1 March 20260-1
Go Ahead Eagles – Excelsior26 October 20252-0
Go Ahead Eagles – Excelsior30 March 20243-0
Excelsior – Go Ahead Eagles16 December 20231-1
Excelsior – Go Ahead Eagles14 April 20232-1
Go Ahead Eagles – Excelsior29 October 20223-1