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Eredivisie · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Fortuna Sittard6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
NEC Nijmegen13th place
FOR 28%X 26%NEC 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: NEC Nijmegen -0.1, Fortuna Sittard -1.3.
  • If Fortuna Sittard score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If NEC Nijmegen score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.559%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a NEC Nijmegen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.53X26%3.88246%2.18
Double chance
1X54%1.85X272%1.391274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.44BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fortuna Sittard · Columns: NEC Nijmegen1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

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Head to head

NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard18 October 20262-2
NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard28 February 20262-3
Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen31 August 20253-2
NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard19 January 20254-1
Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen31 August 20240-3
Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen2 April 20241-1