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Eredivisie · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · De Grolsch Veste
Twente4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
AZ Alkmaar5th place
TWE 55%X 25%AZ 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Twente lead by 81 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Twente 2.0 points per game, AZ Alkmaar 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Twente 1.6, AZ Alkmaar 0.8.
  • If Twente score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.554%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Twente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X25%4.00220%4.95
Double chance
1X80%1.25X245%2.211275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.16BTTS yes54%1.84BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Twente · Columns: AZ Alkmaar1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Twente25 October 20260-2
AZ Alkmaar – Twente3 May 20262-2
Twente – AZ Alkmaar30 November 20251-0
Twente – AZ Alkmaar14 May 20252-3
AZ Alkmaar – Twente21 December 20241-0
AZ Alkmaar – Twente5 May 20242-1