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Eredivisie · Matchday 25Sunday 7 March · 16:00 · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven3rd place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Utrecht12th place
PSV 72%X 17%UTR 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • PSV Eindhoven lead by 224 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: PSV Eindhoven 1.1, Utrecht -0.6.
  • PSV Eindhoven take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If PSV Eindhoven score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Utrecht score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.0 – 1.2
Over 2.580%
Both teams score68%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.38X17%5.72210%9.86
Double chance
1X90%1.11X228%3.621283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.580%1.25Under 2.520%5.00BTTS yes68%1.48BTTS no32%3.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: PSV Eindhoven · Columns: Utrecht3-1 probability 8.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Utrecht – PSV Eindhoven30 August 20261-6
PSV Eindhoven – Utrecht4 April 20264-3
Utrecht – PSV Eindhoven21 December 20251-2
PSV Eindhoven – Utrecht15 February 20252-2
Utrecht – PSV Eindhoven1 December 20242-5
Utrecht – PSV Eindhoven21 January 20241-1