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Ligue 1 · Matchday 21Saturday 20 February · 16:00 · Stade Océane
Le Havre18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Lyon3rd place
HAC 24%X 26%OL 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 206 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 1.8 points per game, Le Havre 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Le Havre -0.2.
  • If Le Havre score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.551%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lyon win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.20X26%3.89250%1.98
Double chance
1X50%2.02X276%1.311274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Havre · Columns: Lyon1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lyon – Le Havre29 August 20261-1
Le Havre – Lyon15 March 20260-0
Lyon – Le Havre14 December 20251-0
Lyon – Le Havre16 March 20254-2
Le Havre – Lyon20 October 20240-4
Le Havre – Lyon14 January 20243-1