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Ligue 1 · Matchday 21Saturday 20 February · 16:00 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Troyes16th place
RCL 73%X 18%ETG 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lens lead by 249 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lens 1.8 points per game, Troyes 0.8.
  • Lens take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Lens score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 32% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.7
Over 2.559%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.38X18%5.5329%10.80
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.661282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Troyes2-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Troyes – Lens17 October 20261-3
Troyes – Lens28 January 20231-1
Lens – Troyes9 September 20221-0
Troyes – Lens14 May 20221-3
Lens – Troyes5 November 20214-0