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Ligue 1 · Matchday 19Saturday 6 February · 16:00 · Stade Océane
Le Havre18th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Toulouse11th place
HAC 30%X 28%TFC 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Toulouse lead by 109 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Toulouse 1.6 points per game, Le Havre 0.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.5, Le Havre -0.2.
  • If Le Havre score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Toulouse win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.37X28%3.62243%2.34
Double chance
1X57%1.75X270%1.421272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.548%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Le Havre · Columns: Toulouse1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Toulouse – Le Havre19 September 20263-2
Le Havre – Toulouse15 February 20262-1
Toulouse – Le Havre2 November 20250-0
Le Havre – Toulouse23 February 20251-4
Toulouse – Le Havre15 September 20242-0
Le Havre – Toulouse10 March 20241-0