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Ligue 1 · Matchday 19Sunday 7 February · 19:45 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Marseille6th place
PSG 71%X 18%OM 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 134 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 1.0, Marseille -0.4.
  • Derby match.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 33% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.6 – 1.0
Over 2.569%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
171%1.41X18%5.54211%9.03
Double chance
1X89%1.12X229%3.431282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.569%1.45Under 2.531%3.20BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Marseille2-0 probability 9.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain20 September 20261-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Marseille8 February 20265-0
Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain22 September 20251-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Marseille16 March 20253-1
Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain27 October 20240-3
Marseille – Paris Saint-Germain31 March 20240-2