TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Friday 9 October · 19:45 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Exact score
Lyon3rd place
RCL 45%X 27%OL 28%

What does the market say?

LensDrawLyonRinvalo45%27%28%
Market40%26%35%

✓ Agree · both back Lens

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Lens take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Lens score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X27%3.73228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X255%1.831273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Lyon2-1 probability 9.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL
LyonWLWLW

Head to head

Lens – Lyon9 October 20262-1
Lyon – Lens17 May 20260-4
Lens – Lyon16 August 20250-1
Lyon – Lens4 May 20251-2
Lens – Lyon15 September 20240-0
Lyon – Lens3 March 20240-3