TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Saturday 10 October · 19:45 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Toulouse12th place
MON 51%X 26%TFC 23%

What does the market say?

MonacoDrawToulouseRinvalo51%26%23%
Market59%22%19%

✓ Agree · both back Monaco

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Monaco lead by 108 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Monaco 2.6 points per game, Toulouse 1.0.
  • Monaco take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.557%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.97X26%3.81223%4.34
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.031274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.32BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.39

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Toulouse2-2 probability 5.7% · final score

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL

Head to head

Monaco – Toulouse10 October 20262-2
Toulouse – Monaco25 April 20262-2
Monaco – Toulouse25 October 20251-0
Toulouse – Monaco7 March 20251-1
Monaco – Toulouse7 December 20242-0
Monaco – Toulouse18 February 20241-2