TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 14:00 · Allianz Riviera
Nice8th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✕ Missed
Strasbourg12th place
NIC 34%X 27%STR 39%

What does the market say?

NiceDrawStrasbourgRinvalo34%27%39%
Market41%26%33%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Strasbourg 39%, market Nice 41%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Strasbourg lead by 103 rating points.
  • If Nice score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Strasbourg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.94X27%3.66239%2.58
Double chance
1X61%1.63X266%1.511273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nice · Columns: Strasbourg2-1 probability 8.1% · final score

Form

Compare →
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Nice – Strasbourg11 October 20262-1
Strasbourg – Nice4 April 20263-1
Nice – Strasbourg3 January 20261-1
Strasbourg – Nice12 April 20252-2
Nice – Strasbourg24 November 20242-1
Strasbourg – Nice28 April 20241-3