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Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 16:15 · Roazhon Park
Rennes5th place
Full time4-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Auxerre13th place
REN 59%X 24%AUX 18%

What does the market say?

RennesDrawAuxerreRinvalo59%24%18%
Market66%19%15%

✓ Agree · both back Rennes

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Rennes lead by 101 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Rennes 2.0 points per game, Auxerre 1.2.
  • Rennes take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Rennes score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Auxerre score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Rennes win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X24%4.22218%5.70
Double chance
1X82%1.21X241%2.431276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rennes · Columns: Auxerre4-1 probability 3.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
RennesLWLWL
AuxerreWLWDL

Head to head

Rennes – Auxerre11 October 20264-1
Auxerre – Rennes22 February 20260-3
Rennes – Auxerre19 October 20252-2
Rennes – Auxerre6 April 20250-1
Auxerre – Rennes3 November 20244-0
Auxerre – Rennes11 March 20230-0