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Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Saturday 10 October · 19:45 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Full time3-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Le Mans17th place
PSG 79%X 14%LMS 7%

What does the market say?

Paris Saint-GermainDrawLe MansRinvalo79%14%7%
Market87%8%4%

✓ Agree · both back Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 221 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 0.7, Le Mans -0.1.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Le Mans score first, they win 24% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals3.0 – 0.9
Over 2.574%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
179%1.26X14%7.1827%14.81
Double chance
1X93%1.07X221%4.841286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.574%1.35Under 2.526%3.84BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Le Mans3-1 probability 8.2% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Le Mans10 October 20263-1