TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Sunday 11 October · 19:45 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Full time0-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Marseille6th place
ETG 19%X 21%OM 60%

What does the market say?

TroyesDrawMarseilleRinvalo19%21%60%
Market26%25%50%

✓ Agree · both back Marseille

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 189 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Marseille -0.1, Troyes -1.1.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 43% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.2
Over 2.566%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.30X21%4.69260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.49X281%1.231279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.91BTTS yes62%1.61BTTS no38%2.64

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Marseille0-2 probability 8.2% · final score

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Troyes – Marseille11 October 20260-2
Marseille – Troyes16 April 20233-1
Troyes – Marseille11 January 20230-2
Troyes – Marseille27 February 20221-1
Marseille – Troyes28 November 20211-0