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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 8Saturday 24 October · 19:45 · Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Lens9th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Paris FC4th place
RCL 46%X 28%PFC 26%

What does the market say?

LensDrawParis FCRinvalo46%28%26%
Market39%26%34%

✓ Agree · both back Lens

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Lens take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Lens score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lens win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.16X28%3.63226%3.81
Double chance
1X74%1.36X254%1.861272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lens · Columns: Paris FC2-1 probability 9.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Lens – Paris FC24 October 20262-1
Paris FC – Lens14 February 20260-5
Lens – Paris FC19 October 20252-1