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Ligue 1 · Matchday 8Monday 26 October · 19:30 · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
Full time2-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Exact score
Lyon3rd place
PSG 61%X 22%OL 16%

What does the market say?

Paris Saint-GermainDrawLyonRinvalo61%22%16%
Market66%19%15%

✓ Agree · both back Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 62 rating points.
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Lyon score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.63X22%4.45216%6.12
Double chance
1X84%1.20X239%2.581278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.42BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris Saint-Germain · Columns: Lyon2-0 probability 10.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon26 October 20262-0
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon19 April 20261-2
Lyon – Paris Saint-Germain9 November 20252-3
Lyon – Paris Saint-Germain23 February 20252-3
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon15 December 20243-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon21 April 20244-1