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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 8Sunday 25 October · 14:00 · Stade Louis II
Monaco7th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Lille2nd place
MON 43%X 29%LIL 29%

What does the market say?

MonacoDrawLilleRinvalo43%29%29%
Market46%27%27%

✓ Agree · both back Monaco

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Monaco take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Monaco score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Lille score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Monaco win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.35X29%3.51229%3.46
Double chance
1X71%1.41X257%1.741271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monaco · Columns: Lille1-1 probability 13.3% · final score

Form

Compare →
MonacoWDLDL
LilleLWDDW

Head to head

Monaco – Lille25 October 20261-1
Monaco – Lille10 May 20260-1
Lille – Monaco24 August 20251-0
Lille – Monaco22 February 20252-1
Monaco – Lille18 October 20240-0
Monaco – Lille24 April 20241-0