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Ligue 1 · Matchday 8Sunday 25 October · 16:15 · Stadium de Toulouse
Toulouse11th place
Full time0-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✕ Missed
Troyes16th place
TFC 69%X 19%ETG 11%

What does the market say?

ToulouseDrawTroyesRinvalo69%19%11%
Market59%23%19%

✓ Agree · both back Toulouse

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Toulouse lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Toulouse 0.1, Troyes -1.1.
  • If Toulouse score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Troyes score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.8
Over 2.560%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.44X19%5.21211%8.78
Double chance
1X89%1.13X231%3.271281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.52BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Toulouse · Columns: Troyes0-0 probability 5.0% · final score

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW

Head to head

Toulouse – Troyes25 October 20260-0
Toulouse – Troyes1 February 20234-1
Troyes – Toulouse14 August 20220-3